African Economic Hindsight; Trouble across the pond

The term bailout has become popular throughout recent times describing how major Eurozone economies; headed by Angela Merkel's Germany have come to the rescue of ailing co-members.  The most recent bailout issued by the Troika however, appears to be less of a bailout in the traditional sense of the word.  Where previous deals for Ireland and Greece's economy's involved funds to the total of approximately 85bn and 130bn euros respectively, and some measure of austerity and bank recapitalization  and Spain to some extent, which was allowed up to 100bn euros in borrowing for its financial sector (the term bailout being strongly disputed in the Spanish case), the Cypriot bailout resembles more of a bail-in and furthermore, sets a dangerous precedent.

The roots of the Cypriot crisis stem from a previously weakening and indecisive Socialist government; from which President Anastasiades took over at the end of February, and crippling exposure of the banking sector (which had already grown extremely rapidly in the years up to 2008) to foreign finance.  In 2011 figures from the IMF show that Cypriot bank assets amounted to 835% of Cyprus's GDP; with a large majority owned abroad. Furthermore, purely Cypriot assets from local banks had been lent to the Greek economy; an amount itself believed to be a staggering 160% of GDP.  It was hence no surprise that the Southern European economy's financial tribulations began to crescendo when the Greek's were on the receiving end of a haircut on their bonds in 2011.  The Cypriot government, with little financial leverage to lessen the detrimental effects of Cypriot exposure, coupled with rising unemployment and increasing debt to sustain unemployment benefits, requested a bailout given the prospect of a crumbling-down of the local financial system; the contents and ramifications of which have only just recently been agreed after a gruelling period of negotiations between the Cypriot officials and the Troika.

It would be misleading and incomplete to not mention the role of the Russians within the confines of the Cypriot situation; with private Russian citizens and institutions investing heavily and strongly believed to be behind the prominence and growth of the Cypriot banking sector, which itself was triggered by the reputation Cyprus had forged itself as being an 'offshore tax haven' of some sorts, with little or no controls on money laundering.  One of the very first glimpses of aid in direction of Cyprus following the economic decline was in provenance of Russia in early 2012, an amount of 2.5bn euros intended towards helping at covering the budget deficit.  It was hence with little surprise that Cyprus' finance minister Michael Sarris was in Russia trying to conjure up more funds using Cypriot gas reserves as collateral; however this recent attempt failed and rather yielded a renegotiation on the terms of the original 2.5bn euros lent by Russia.  This seemingly innocuous Russian involvement in Cyprus's affair; may help understand the motivations behind a bailout deal which has and will continue to evoke controversy for some time. 

The initial framework of the deal involved levies on customer bank deposits combined with the usual prescription of some austerity we have come to expect from the policymakers in Brussels.  The specifics which involved a 6.7% levy on bank deposits up to 100,000 euros (which are in principle supposed to be guaranteed) and 9.9% on those in the upper band of that limit yielded outrage across Cyprus; and uncertainty around Europe as the prospect of up-until then untouched private savings and assets being seemingly usurped.  This particular clause was the talking point of a deal in which savers were due bank shares as compensation for any losses, and Cyprus would receive 10bn euros from the Eurozone bailout funds (either the European Financial Stability Facility or the European Stability Mechanism) on the condition its government raise at least 5.8bn euros (hence the bank levies).  This proposed deal however was swiftly rejected in Cypriot parliament; amid fears the relatively small economy (as it accounts for less than a quarter of a per cent of Eurozone GDP) would be heading towards the door of the Eurozone club.  These fears were eased in the past week as a revised deal was drawn up and agreed; less harsh on proprietors of guaranteed amounts in banks (up to 100,000 euros), draconian for those within the upper band of that limit, and with unavoidable bleak times ahead for the Cypriot economy and its people.  The new deal involves a recapitalization of Cyprus's largest bank; Bank of Cyprus, as well as it being transferred the accounts of guaranteed depositors from Cyprus's second largest bank; Laiki Bank, which is to be wound up with any losses being absorbed by its bondholders and unguaranteed depositors. Unguaranteed depositors from Bank of Cyprus have also not been spared; with the banks recapitalization also expected to inflict heavy losses on said agents.  Furthermore; it is expected of Cyprus by Eurozone leaders that some or a considerable amount of control be exerted on its once liberal financial system; in effect washing away all hope that Cyprus may once regain its status as a tax haven.

Why the hard line on a relatively inconsiderable economy by the Troika? At this point it is important to refer back to Russian involvement on the Southern Island.  Angela Merkel has been on the receiving end for some time, of a considerable amount of criticism at home where it is believed German taxpayers are unfairly incurring most of the costs when it comes to bailing out their less prominent neighbours.  Why should they bail out Cyprus when foreigners who injected the large portions of capital (mostly Russian financial giants) are not required to?  Given the forthcoming elections; it is possible and understandable that Chancellor Merkel may have given in to pressure or sought to put herself in a favourable light ahead of the polls in September.  This is not to say that the view shared by Germans vis-a-vis the Cypriot situation is not shared by other Eurozone economies; and hence a dangerous precedent has been set given that the Cypriot bailout deal, resembles more of a bail-in where senior creditors are very realistically going to make considerable losses.

Some observers have noted that the final deal is a better alternative to guaranteed depositors being left open to losses; however I strongly believe the outcome is the same in both cases, if less detrimental to more 'ordinary' agents. Cyprus will eventually have to find a viable and efficient foothold from which more progress can be made; as its banking sector has been irreversibly damaged (at least for the near future), and economic prospects for the next few years put into jeopardy.  Not only does it have to push on with programs of austerity and structural reforms (both commonly coined Germany's dose of 'medicine' for countries receiving bailout funds), but it will also face slumps in demand caused by prospectively extensive shortages of credit at least until the banking sector is back on its feet, and then there's also the matter of consumer dissatisfaction and disillusionment.  Unguaranteed depositors do not yet know the full extent of their losses; but early estimates are aiming in the range of initial losses of 37.5% and further losses of 22.5% if more capitalization is needed; this combined with the current capital flow controls and restrictions in place (to prevent cash leaving the country) implies no decent investor would even consider the idea of approaching Cyprus now, or in the near future. 

The ramifications for the wider Eurozone however, seem less dire given the relative size of the Cypriot economy, some creditors however; especially those with considerable amounts invested in precarious economies such as Italy or Spain, may shudder at the thought of their funds also being used in future bailout programs.  This was reflected in bank shares sharply falling last week following a suggestion by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, President of the Eurogroup that the stipulations of the Cypriot deal might be used as a template for any further bailouts; shifting risk to private sector creditors.  These fears however were eased later by a board member of the European Central Bank; Ewald Nowotny, who implied the Cypriot situation, was indeed a one-off and special case. 

The fact remains Cypriots will find this latest deal extremely hard to take, a dose of 'medicine' perhaps too strong or with too many side-effects; the costs of staying in a club which has yet to yield the grandiose membership benefits predicted from the onset.

RDC : L’OCTROI D’UN CRÉDIT À LA BANQUE ? UN PARI DIFFICILE

Par Ricky Matanda

RDC : L’OCTROI D’UN CRÉDIT  À LA BANQUE ? UN PARI DIFFICILE

  « Quand deux éléphants se battent  c’est l’herbe qui est écrasée, quand ils font l’amour elle n’est pas moins ». C’est  cet état d’esprit que ressent  le client congolais face à sa banque. Générateur des moyens financiers  nécessaires  à la création des PME et des grandes entreprises, les banques commerciales constituent sans doute l’élément phare qui alimente la croissance économique.  En outre,  le secteur privé via ses emprunts aux opérateurs économiques ou à ses clients à titre privé. En effet, celles-ci appliquent essentiellement leur taux d’intérêt au regard du taux directeur de la Banque Centrale, qui est en soi une institution étatique.

Fort d’une amélioration du cadre macroéconomique,  la Banque Centrale dit avoir sensiblement baissé son taux directeur de 4% à 3 %  le 28 Février 2013. Notons que ce taux directeur se situait à 70% en 2009. Cette mesure  de réajustement à en croire le gouverneur de la Banque Centrale monsieur Jean-Claude Masangu Mulongo vise à  pousser les banques commerciales (Biac, Rawbank, Ecobank etc.) à baisser le taux d’intérêt appliqué à leurs clients.

À priori, le but de cet article est de dessiner un portrait général du  système d’octroi de crédits et enfin de proposer des solutions. Sujet d’une importance capitale pour une RDC émergente  et une création des grands industriels congolais.  Afin d’amorcer ma démarche, une simplification de nature élémentaire des termes techniques s’avère  préalablement nécessaire pour une compréhension facile du texte.

BANQUE CENTRALE

Qu’est-ce qu’une Banque Centrale? Le lexique Banque Info définit une Banque Centrale tel que suit :

«  La banque centrale est l’entité responsable de la gestion du système monétaire d’un pays. Les banques centrales ont de nombreuses responsabilités, qui vont de gestion de la politique monétaire à la mise en place d’objectifs spécifiques tels que la stabilité de la monnaie, une inflation modérée ou le plein-emploi. Les banques centrales émettent généralement les devises, fonctionnement comme la banque du gouvernement régulent le système de crédit via le taux directeurs. Elles supervisent également les banques commerciales, gèrent les réserves de change et agissent comme des prêteurs en dernier ressort. »  

BANQUE COMMERCIALE

Qu’est-ce qu’une Banque Commerciale? Le lexique Banque Info le définit comme suit :

« Une banque commerciale est une banque en lien direct avec les particuliers. Elle collecte leur épargne et gère leur dépôt. Ces banques peuvent être nationales ou internationales. Pour attirer les clients, dans un premier temps, elles offrent une rémunération de l’épargne pour inciter les épargnants à déposer un montant important. Elles prêtent aussi aux acteurs économiques qui en ont besoin. Des prêts sont ainsi accordés aux particuliers, à des taux variables selon le risque du client.»

 Convenons que les banques commerciales interagissent par influence du  taux directeur  fixé par la banque Centrale.

TAUX DIRECTEUR

La Banque Centrale du Congo (BCC)  enregistre  son taux directeur  le plus bas de l’histoire soit  3% seulement.

Qu’est-ce qu’un Taux Directeur ?

« Les Taux directeurs sont les taux d’intérêt fixés par une Banque centrale (d’un pays ou d’une union monétaire), taux auxquels cette banque centrale accorde des crédits à court terme aux banques commerciales. »

PARADOXE

Tout compte fait, ce qui motive cet acte soucieux  de la BCC en faveur des banques commerciales est primordialement son souci majeur,  à ce que les banques commerciales octroient par ricochet des crédits à des taux d’intérêts  plus ou moins raisonnables.  Mais cette disposition semble d’application pratique difficile.  Par ailleurs, avec un taux d’intérêt à hauteur de 25% pour des crédits octroyés en franc congolais et 15% pour des crédits libellés en dollars américains les banques commerciales sont loin de suivre l’évolution de la baisse sensible du taux directeur de la BCC. Celles-ci évoquent plusieurs facteurs de risque à savoir :

• 90 %  de dépôts bancaires sont à court terme
• L’absence de garanties en cas du nom remboursement
• L’absence d’un fond de couverture
• Des impôts très élevés à l’état  

En clair, les banques commerciales  observent  des demandes de crédits très élevées, alors que les prêteurs ne disposent pas des ressources qui permettraient un remboursement sans faille. En conséquence, celles-ci misent sur des taux d’intérêts très élevés à court terme. Mesure dans son entendement  qui permettrait  à réduire le risque du non-remboursement.

Somme toute,  le gouvernement croit avoir fait le nécessaire pour un environnement sain du climat des affaires en RDC.  Ainsi donc, par l’entremise du premier  ministre et du gouverneur de la Banque Centrale.  Le premier  se félicite de l’adhésion de la RDC depuis le 12 Septembre. 2012 au système comptable de l’OHADA  (Organisation pour l'Harmonisation en Afrique du Droit des Affaires)  structure qui permet  aux investisseurs et opérateurs économiques de disposer d’un même cadre légal et des mêmes instances d’arbitrage en cas de conflit. Le deuxième à son tour affirme  avoir posé un acte historique, en baissant le taux directeur au plus bas de son histoire.

 À cet égard,  soulignons objectivement, que  ces mesures sont des efforts fort  louables cependant elles demeurent insuffisantes. Primo, l’état via la BCC  doit forcer la main aux banques commerciales d’élargir l’échéance du crédit  bancaire. À titre d’exemple un opérateur économique qui œuvre dans le secteur de la construction est dans l’impossibilité de rembourser son prêt bancaire, 6 mois seulement après son endettement auprès de sa banque. Car  la construction étant encore au stade de sa planification sur papier et ne peut générer par conséquence aucune recette financière, idem pour l’opérateur minier.  Secundo, il est difficilement concevable de parler d’une amélioration du cadre macroéconomique lorsque le dollar américain bat son plein  et règne en maître sur l’économie congolaise,  une lutte acharnée contre la dollarisation s’avère préalablement prioritaire question de valoriser et stabiliser le franc congolais. Tertio, s’agissant de l’activité  informelle, celle-ci  demeure à mes yeux le chantier le plus poignant de l’économie congolaise. Ici,  l’état a fait chou blanc mettant  en place  des politiques de réinsertion  faibles.  Force est de constater que celles-ci ne font pas recette et nécessite par conséquent des assouplissements en outre  des offres plus flatteuses  afin d’attirer ces opérateurs dans la formalité. En revanche, je pèse de tout mon poids l’entrée en vigueur   de la bancarisation pour la paie des agents de la fonction publique, elle était nécessaire pour mettre fin à toute pratique malsaine. En conclusion, le problème du taux d’intérêt persiste considérablement depuis des années et aucune évolution vers la résolution du problème n’a été observée. L’état congolais doit répondre adéquatement à ce qui pose problème pour enfin observer une baisse sensible du taux d’intérêt des banques commerciales. Outre mesure, ignorant ce qui pose problème ne peut améliorer la situation. Et cela même si la BCC baisse son taux directeur à 0,1%, l’évolution du taux d'intérêt des banques commerciales ne suivra pas son cours et restera sans effet.

O Afrique, Que Signifies Tu ? (2)

Dans ma quête afin de déterminer la provenance et la signification du mot "Afrique" ,

j'ai pu découvrir que sa source proviendrait surement des peuples du nord du continent 

dont les tribus berbères mais aussi des romains qui l'auraient aussi diffusés.

De plus, je suis tombé sur un poème intitulé : The Meaning of Africa, 

poème écrit par le poète, écrivain et docteur: Abisoeh Nicol.

Poème discutant ce que signifie l'Afrique pour Abisoeh Nicol. 

Version intéressante mais longue.

The Meaning of Africa
Africa, you were once just a name to me
But now you lie before me with sombre green challenge
To that loud faith for freedom (life more abundant)
Which we once professed shouting
Into the silent listening microphone
Or on an alien platform to a sea
Of white perplexed faces troubled
With secret Imperial guilt; shouting
Of you with a vision euphemistic
As you always appear
To your lonely sons on distant shores.

Then the cold sky and continent would disappear
In a grey mental mist.
And in its stead the hibiscus blooms in shameless scarlet
and the bougainvillea in mauve passion
entwines itself around strong branches
the palm trees stand like tall proud moral women
shaking their plaited locks against the
cool suggestive evening breeze;
the short twilight passes;
the white full moon turns its round gladness
towards the swept open space
between the trees; there will be
dancing tonight; and in my brimming heart
plenty of love and laughter.
Oh, I got tired of the cold northern sun
Of white anxious ghost-like faces
Of crouching over heatless fires
In my lonely bedroom.
The only thing I never tired of
was the persistent kindness
Of you too few unafraid
Of my grave dusky strangeness.

So I came back
Sailing down the Guinea Coast.
Loving the sophistication
Of your brave new cities:
Dakar, Accra, Cotonou,
Lagos, Bathurst and Bissau;
Liberia, Freetown, Libreville,
Freedom is really in the mind.

Go up-country, so they said,
To see the real Africa.
For whomsoever you may be,
That is where you come from.
Go for bush, inside the bush,
You will find your hidden heart,
Your mute ancestral spirit.
So I went, dancing on my way.

Now you lie before me passive
With your unanswering green challenge.
Is this all you are?
This long uneven red road, this occasional succession
Of huddled heaps of four mud walls
And thatched, falling grass roofs
Sometimes ennobled by a thin layer
Of white plaster, and covered with thin
Slanting corrugated zinc.
These patient faces on weather-beaten bodies
Bowing under heavy market loads.
The pedalling cyclist wavers by
On the wrong side of the road,
As if uncertain of his new emancipation.
The squawking chickens, the pregnant she-goats
Lumber awkwardly with fear across the road,
Across the windscreen view of my four-cylinder kit car.
An overloaded lorry speeds madly towards me
Full of produce, passengers, with driver leaning
Out into the swirling dust to pilot his
Swinging obsessed vehicle along,
Beside him on the raised seat his first-class
Passenger, clutching and timid; but he drives on
At so, so many miles per hour, peering out with
Bloodshot eyes, unshaved face and dedicated look;
His motto painted on each side: Sunshine Transport,
We get you there quick, quick. The Lord is my Shepherd.

The red dust settles down on the green leaves.

I know you will not make me want, Lord,
Though I have reddened your green pastures
It is only because I have wanted so much
That I have always been found wanting.
From South and East, and from my West
(The sandy desert holds the North)
We look across a vast continent
And blindly call it ours.

You are not a country, Africa,
You are a concept,
Fashioned in our minds, each to each,
To hide our separate fears,
To dream our separate dreams.
Only those within you who know
Their circumscribed plot,
And till it well with steady plough
Can from that harvest then look up
To the vast blue inside
Of the enameled bowl of sky
Which covers you and say
‘This is my Africa’ meaning
‘I am content and happy.
I am fulfilled, within,
Without and roundabout
I have gained the little longings
Of my hands, my loins, my heart
And the soul that follows in my shadow.’
I know now that is what you are, Africa:
Happiness, contentment, and fulfillment,
And a small bird singing on a mango tree.

O Afrique, Que Signifies Tu ? (1)

Sincèrement parlant, je ne m'étais jamais posé la question avant aujourd'hui

Que signifie le mot "Afrique" ? D'ou provient il?

Je suppose que ce sont les effets de l'insomnie qui sont la raison de cette soudaine réflexion…

Mais bon, ce n'est pas si mal après tout...

Après m'être posé la question, je me suis mise a la recherche

Il faut dire en tout premier lieu que l'origine est incertaine…

Donc surtout aidé par Wikipédia, voici quelques réponses.

Une des réponses que j'ai bien aimé provient de "Isidore de Séville" qui le tire du latin aprica "ensoleillé"

Cela n'est pas loin de la signification de" Léon l'Africain" qui lui, invoque un mot grec a-phrike " sans froid "

Sinon, ceux qui sont jugées par plusieurs pour être les vrais significations: 

• Mot développé par les marines phéniciens  qui ont accosté au nord du continent et ont vu étendue du désert de sable qui se trouvait à environ 500 à 1000 m de la rive et donc les mots "afar" et "rayak" signifiant poussière et vide ont du être utilise. Ce qui formait AFAR*RAYK*A [Oxford English Dictionary]

• La partie nord du continent car en Campanie, africus, qualifiait le vent pluvieux provenant de la région de Cathage (ville tunisienne, mais colonie romaine auparavant), selon les romains [Michèle Fruyt (Revue de Philologie 50, 1976: 221-238)]

• Nom Afridi une tribu qui vivait en Afrique du Nord justement près de Carthage. Une autre explication rapprocherait le mot Africa du berbère Taferka signifiant « terre », « propriété terrienne ».[Hypothèse de Daniel Don Nanjira (African Foreign Policy and Diplomacy: From Antiquity to the 21st Century, éd. ABC-CLIO, 2010, p. 17)]

• Ifren: signifiant grotte ou caverne en berbere et provenant de la tribu des tribu Banou Ifren. Les banou Ifren considérés comme les habitants de l'ancienne Ifriqiya, actuelle Tunisie.

• Af-rui-ka, «se tourner vers l'ouverture de la Ka."  dans une langue égyptienne. Le Ka est le double énergétique de chaque personne et de «l'ouverture de la Ka» se réfère à une matrice ou lieu de naissance. Afrique serait, pour les Egyptiens, "le berceau". [Massey, 1881]. Je l'ai bien aimé celle ci aussi.

Pasted from <http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Origin_and_meaning_of_word_Africa>

Pasted from <http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afrique>

Pasted from <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa>

The two stories to Africa

I was talking to a friend a while ago and I was lamenting on how Africa´s dirty linen was always front news but was quite happy that things had changed now. Then he said I should be realistic twenty years ago there wasn´t great news coming out of the continent. There were dictators, civil wars, famine and apartheid. So basically it would have been magic if there was any good news emerging from Africa.

Nowadays with the growth of most  African economies, the achievements of Africans in the diaspora and the return of skilled labor to third world countries things have changed. Every now and again there are stories of hope, achievement and innovations springing out of our continent. The year 2012 marked a huge increase of African culture being exposed to the western world whether in arts, music or culture. In the Fashion industry, great names like Jean Paul Gautier and Dries Van Noten were experimenting with African textiles called ‘ankara’ or ‘maksi’ in their collections and it was not strange seeing haute couture inspired by these prints. But these textiles have existed for years and were worn by our grandmothers or mothers to church, weddings and funerals. Also,  in the music industry there has been an increase of collaborations between African singers and western ones. This can be seen in Dbanj’s latest video Oliver twist with Kanye West or even Beyonce’s use of Mozambican dance styles in her ‘Who run the world, girls’. But these beats and fashion styles have been used for ages on our continent, why the sudden buzz?

In my opinion it has to do more with the positive economic status Africans are enjoying. There has been an awakening to our uniqueness. A lot of information has been given to the younger generation; they have come to see that the grass is not greener on the other side. The same opportunities that others have in the West can also be seized here but through the sweat of your toil. Also, a lot of Africans are schooling outside either doing the undergraduate, masters or Phd in Ivy League schools in Britain or US. According to recent studies African immigrants are one of the most educated groups in the United States.

These same people are returning to their respective countries and are opening companies that are trying to tackle issues in their country.  An example of a lady in Ghana my country who is doing just that is Deborah Ahenkorah the founder of Golden baobab an  organization whose aim is to encourage African authors to write children illustration books so that the kids who read them can relate with the characters in them.

This is not the end but the beginning of these stories there would be better stories coming out Africa because people like Deborah are deciding to write their own stories. Although western media has more interest in publishing dooms day stories about Africa.  We have to ask ourselves ; are these stories wrong? No, they are not but they concentrate on just one part of the story. With that I leave you with this TED video by Chimamanda Achidie who explains the concept so succinctly.